The Australian Energy Market Operator has released their 2014 Electricity Statement of Opportunities.
The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides an assessment of supply adequacy in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over the next 10 years, highlighting opportunities for generation and demand-side investment.
For the first time in the history of the NEM, the report indicates that no new thermal baseload electricity generation is required over the next decade to maintain system reliability, due to the continuing decline in electricity consumption.
“More than 7,500 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity would need to be removed from the market to affect supply adequacy in 2014-15,” said AEMO Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Matt Zema.
According to the ESOO, even if electricity consumption increased followed by 10 years of high consumption growth, by 2023-24 more than 4,500 MW of generation capacity could still be withdrawn from the NEM without affecting supply adequacy.
“Electricity consumption from the grid has continued to decline in 2013-14, and this has contributed to an oversupply of generation capacity in the NEM,” Mr Zema said.
Although the ESOO estimates there may be up to 8,950 MW of surplus generation capacity in the NEM in 2014-15, investment opportunities could still arise through schemes supporting renewable energy generation, to meet localised consumption growth pockets, or to manage intermittent generation.
The 2014 ESOO consolidates analysis from AEMO’s quarterly Supply-demand Snapshots, and includes the latest electricity generator and consumption information.
The full report can be viewed here.
