The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is preparing for the upcoming cold season, with the completed winter preparedness report predicting similar conditions to recent years across Australia’s major electricity and gas markets.
AEMO’s preparation includes assessment of forecasts for weather, electricity and gas demand, along with expected generation and network availability across the National Electricity Market (NEM), the East Coast Gas System and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) in Western Australia.
Commenting on the upcoming winter, AEMO Executive General Manager Operations, Michael Gatt, said the outlook for the NEM and WEM is similar to the previous two winters, while gas supply in south east Australia has tightened following the October 2024 retirement of Gas Plant 1 and the crude stabilisation plant at the Longford Gas Plant in Victoria.
“We’re expecting similar conditions to recent winters, with the ongoing risk of cold snaps driving peak electricity and gas demand,” Mr Gatt said.
Since the end of last winter 2024, an additional 2GW of battery, wind and grid-scale solar projects have come online in the NEM, including approximately 855MW of battery storage.
“Another 7GW of projects are in final commissioning, including the 660MW Hunter power project,” Mr Gatt said.
“These are expected to become fully operational in the coming months, comprising 2.2GW of batteries, 2.5GW of wind, 1.5GW of solar, 0.1GW of hybrid (solar and battery), and 0.7GW of gas (including Hunter),” he said.
Coal and gas-powered generation availability is expected to be higher on average in the NEM, supported by Queensland’s Callide C4 unit returning to service, and AEMO said planned network maintenance is in line with previous winters.
Coal stockpile inventory in the NEM is at normal levels, and gas demand is forecast to be lower than average across a range of weather conditions – consistent with the past two winters. Pre-winter maintenance at gas supply facilities in south east Australia have been completed and gas storages are also full.
“Winter gas consumption and peak day demand are highly weather-dependent,” Mr Gatt said.
“No supply shortfalls are forecast for the East Coast Gas System this winter, but additional gas flows from Queensland and southern state storage facilities are expected to be needed, including increased supply from late August to early September during planned outages to increase future gas production capacity.”
Warmer-than-average conditions are also forecast for Western Australia.
In the WEM, around 725MW of additional battery energy storage is available compared to last winter, replacing the retired MUJA G6 coal-fired generator.
Also in the WEM, coal stockpiles are at normal levels, and gas supply is considered adequate ahead of winter.
“As winter progresses, AEMO will continue to monitor conditions and work closely with governments and industry to manage any emerging risks,” Mr Gatt said.
“If required, AEMO has numerous levers at its disposal to manage these risks across these markets including recalling planned outages, accessing off-market reserves, using East Coast Gas System functions to increase gas supply, and lead a coordinated response effort,” he said.
