According to a new report from ElectraNet, South Australia is at a pivotal point in its energy future and getting electricity demand forecasting right will be critical for reliability and to enable economic growth in the state.
The 2025 Transmission Annual Planning Report (TAPR) has found that clean energy is being used to reshape South Australia’s economy, which is driving a new level of demand that would have seemed unimaginable only a few years ago.
The report outlines not only the opportunities ahead, but also highlights that transmission planning frameworks, planning assumptions and regulatory settings need to not only keep up with, but get ahead of the pace of change.
ElectraNet CEO, Simon Emms, said South Australia’s energy transition is accelerating, and so too is the need for a transmission network that can keep pace with today’s reality.
“Industries are choosing to invest here because of the strength of our renewables and grid,” he said.
“Projects are scaling up faster. Expectations are higher. And our transmission network must rise to meet this moment.”
A key concern raised in the 2025 TAPR is that current methodologies used by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) in the Integrated System Plan (ISP) underestimate future electricity demand.
ElectraNet said that as demand forecasts inform which transmission projects should be built, inaccurate modelling has the potential to put South Australia’s energy stability, security and economic prosperity at risk.
In an environment of growing demand and rapid change, the utility said it is critical that AEMO’s demand forecasts are sufficiently flexible to capture expected load growth, which would support efficient and timely transmission development to deliver the transition to net zero at least cost to consumers.
The 2025 TAPR shows unprecedented levels of interest in connecting to South Australia’s network, for both load and demand, from industries such as mining, green steel, desalination, data centres and new renewable energy projects.
Active interest in new load connections in the short to medium-term currently exceeds 2500MW. To put this in perspective, South Australia’s current average grid demand is approximately 1300MW, with peak demand at about 3300MW.
ElectraNet said it is also aware of a range of further potential industrial loads that have not yet started connection discussions, which would bring total interest in new connections to more than 15,000MW.
The 2025 TAPR shows around 1300MW of additional demand is likely in South Australia by 2035, however, this could be even higher under some scenarios. This will effectively double the energy carried by the transmission network in South Australia, the utility said.
ElectraNet is in the early stages of investigating the Northern Transmission Project (NTx) – a project which would increase network reliability and enable such growth.
Currently only ‘committed’ projects have been included in demand forecasts for cost benefit analysis of upgrades to the transmission network such as NTx.
Load projects that are still pending have not been considered. ElectraNet said given transmission upgrades often take longer to build, this could put South Australia’s energy security and economic development at risk.
The utility said AEMO’s forecasting methodology should be amended to allow non committed loads to be included in the medium term to longer term forecast to provide a realistic forecast of future demand.
“We need to plan for what’s coming, not just what’s already committed. And we need to ensure South Australia is not held back by models built for the past,” Mr Emms said.
“Our clean energy future is no longer a distant goal. It’s happening now. South Australia must be equipped to maximise the opportunity for all South Australians.
“Our team at ElectraNet stands ready to deliver. We are working closely with AEMO, SA Power Networks, government, customers, and industry stakeholders to make sure we build the right infrastructure, in the right places, at the right time.”
